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Aug 16, 2010

Commercial Insight: Cytotoxic Therapies - Drug launches in rare indications to offset the decline in cytotoxic sales now available at ReportsandReport

Dallas, TX: ReportsandReports announce it will carry Commercial Insight: Cytotoxic Therapies – Drug launches in rare indications to offset the decline in cytotoxic sales Market Research Report in its Store.

Browse complete Commercial Insight: Cytotoxic Therapies – Drug launches in rare indications to offset the decline in cytotoxic sales Report

Introduction

Growth of cytotoxics will remain static over the forecast period with a CAGR of -0.1%. Several blockbuster products are due to undergo patent expiry over the forecast period and the loss of their branded sales will negatively impact on the growth of this market. But the launch of a number of drugs in rare indications will stabilize growth in this market and offset its decline from generic entry.

Scope

* In-depth analysis of the current and future cytotoxic therapies market across the US, 5EU and Japan, plus a rest of world snapshot

* Cytotoxic therapy sales forecasts for brands and generics from 2009 to 2019

* Assessment of the leading cancer brands and drug classes to identify key success factors within this sector

* Assess the strategies of the leading companies in the cytotoxics market

Highlights

Sales of cytotoxic drugs are forecast to decline in the seven major markets from $14 billion in 2009 to $13.9 billion by 2019, at a CAGR of -0.1%. The launch of Dacogen (decitabine; Eisai/Johnson & Johnson) and Vidaza (azacitidine; Celgene) in the 5EU and Japanese markets will slow down the decline in cytotoxic sales over the forecast period.

In 2009, Taxotere (docetaxel; Sanofi-Aventis), Eloxatin (oxaliplatin; Sanofi-Aventis) and Alimta (pemetrexed; Eli Lilly) were the top three cytotoxics, with sales over $1 billion. Alimta will remain among the top three brands in 2019, along with Dacogen and Vidaza.

The keys events to impact the cytotoxics market in the forecast period involve new drug launches, approvals into new indications and patent expiries. Several products with annual sales of over $1 billion are due to undergo patent expiry over the forecast period, however, new drug launches in rarer indications will compensate for this loss of sales.

Reasons to Purchase

* Quantify the performance of each of the marketed cytotoxic therapy cancer brands in the seven major markets over the period 2009 to 2019

* Acquire a detailed account of cytotoxic therapy cancer brand dynamics and the events that drive and limit their market growth

* Benchmark the cytotoxic therapy cancer brands against their generics and rest of class and align their 7MM performance with a rest of world snapshot

Table Of Contents

Overview

Catalyst

Summary

About Datamonitor healthcare

About the oncology pharmaceutical analysis team

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Strategic scoping and focus

Datamonitor insight into the cytotoxic therapies market

Related reports

Upcoming related reports

Table of Contents

1. MARKET DEFINITION

Market definition for this report

Cytotoxic therapies by ATC class

L1A -Alkylating agents

L1B -Antimetabolites

L1C -Vinca alkaloids and other plant-derived products

L1D -Antineoplastic antibiotics

L1X2 -Platinum compounds

L1X9 -All other antineoplastics

2. MARKET OVERVIEW

Seven major markets

Current and future market overview

The cytotoxics therapies market is set to experience negative growth to 2019 with a large number of products losing their patents over the next 5 years

Patent expiries on the leading cytotoxic brands are set to occur within the next 5 years

The US is due to lose nearly half its value by 2019 due to generic erosion of key branded products

The antimetabolites are forecast to account for the largest proportion of market share through to 2019

The current leading cytotoxic brands are forecast to lose significant market share by 2019 due to patent expiry

The cytotoxics market will experience contract from $14 billion in 2009 to $13.9 billion in 2019 across the seven major pharmaceutical markets

Opportunities and threats

Opportunity 1: aging population will result in increasing cancer incidence

Opportunity 2: oncology therapy sales continue to experience strong growth

Opportunity 3: high levels of unmet need

Threat 1: Pharma’s transition towards specialist secondary care indications may further increase competition in the oncology market

Threat 2: the cost of drug development continues to rise

Threat 3: ongoing cost-containment measures

US

Current and future market assessment

The large impact that generic erosion has on sales of branded drugs will cause a decrease in the US cytotoxics market

The cytotoxics market will shrink from $7 billion in 2009 to $4.4 billion in 2019 in the US

Opportunities and threats

Opportunity 1: with a large population and high healthcare expenditure, the US will continue to offer commercial opportunities for drug developers

Opportunity 2: healthcare reform will lead to an increase in the number of insured in the US

Opportunity 3: closure of the Medicare Part D coverage gap is good news for branded Pharma

Threat 1: growing regulatory pressures increase costs and decrease market penetration for Pharma

Threat 2: patent expiries and the resulting generic competition will erode branded sales revenues

Threat 3: in the long run, US health reform law will intensify cost-containment pressures

Japan

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics market in Japan will experience growth of nearly 2% from 2009 to 2019

The cytotoxics market will grow from $2.4 billion in 2009 to $2.8 billion in 2019 in Japan

Opportunities and threats

Opportunity 1: the aging population represents a large and growing patient base

Opportunity 2: generic sales erosion remains low in Japan

Opportunity 3: decrease in lag times for launch of new drugs could accelerate new launches

Threat 1: government-enforced biennial cuts continue to have a negative effect on market growth

Threat 2: healthcare proposal to change current pricing system will be of limited benefit to Japanese Pharma

Threat 3: changes to reference pricing will bring down launch prices

Five major European markets (5EU)

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics therapies market in the five major EU markets will grow through to 2019 as a result of several key product launches

The cytotoxics market will grow from $4.6 billion in 2009 to $6.5 billion in 2019 in the five major European markets

Opportunities and threats

Opportunity 1: EU Cancer Task Force will improve the availability of information while generating funds for research

Opportunity 2: reorganization of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) expected to streamline the EU regulatory process

Threat 1: new European drug price reductions are likely to impact the growth of the pharma industry

Threat 2: higher generic uptake in less mature EU markets will impact on branded sales revenues

Threat 3: the European Commission inquiry into delays in generics market entry will have wide-ranging ramifications for the branded and generics industry

Threat 4: Spain’s price cuts and reference groups are driving drug prices down

Threat 5: new low reimbursement rate created in France signals the growing pressure for cost-containment

Threat 6: NICE will remain a significant hurdle to commercialization of cancer drugs in the UK, despite relaxation of its cost-effectiveness criteria

Threat 7: Germany’s new cost-effectiveness analysis system could add to the downward pressure on drug prices

Threat 8: additional cuts to the price of oncology drugs are forthcoming in Italy under its pay-for-performance scheme

France

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics market will grow from $1.5 billion in 2009 to $1.8 billion in 2019 in France

Germany

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics market will grow from $1.1 billion in 2009 to $1.6 billion in 2019 in Germany

Italy

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics market will grow from $0.8 billion in 2009 to $1.2 billion in 2019 in Italy

Spain

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics market will grow from $0.7 billion in 2009 to $1.1 billion in 2019 in Spain

UK

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics market will grow from $5m in 2009 to $1 billion in 2019 in the UK

Rest of the world snapshot

Current market assessment

Rest of the World sales represent 22% of the global cytotoxics market

Opportunities and threats

Opportunity 1: incidence of cancer is forecast to increase in the BRIC countries

Opportunity 2: emerging markets continue to attract despite challenges

Threat: cost of new therapies is a barrier to market penetration

3. BRAND DYNAMICS

Overview of competitive landscape

Alimta and Taxotere will remain among the top 4 leading cytotoxic brands in both 2009 and 2019

Efficacy and toxicity of a drug are the most important drivers of cytotoxic brand choice

Trends in marketing strategies

Leading cytotoxic brands

Taxotere (docetaxel; Sanofi-Aventis)

Drug profile

Product positioning

SWOT analysis

Brand forecast to 2019

Taxotere sales are forecast to fall after 2010 to $723m in 2019

Eloxatin (oxaliplatin; Sanofi-Aventis)

Drug profile

Product positioning

SWOT analysis

Brand forecast to 2019

Eloxatin sales will continue to fall through to 2019 in response to genericization

Alimta (pemetrexed; Eli Lilly)

Drug profile

Product positioning

SWOT analysis

Brand forecast to 2019

Alimta’s sales are forecast to exceed $2 billion in 2016 before dropping to $0.7 billion in 2019

Gemzar (gemcitabine; Eli Lilly)

Drug profile

Product positioning

SWOT analysis

Brand forecast to 2019

Gemzar sales are forecast to decrease after 2012, losing more than 50% of sales after 2013

4. KEY DEVELOPERS

Strategic overview

Trends in corporate strategy

Approval in multiple tumor types is most likely to result in significant sales

A mature and heavily genericized market means Big Pharma’s experience is crucial

Currently there are relatively few novel cytotoxics in development

Sanofi-Aventis

Corporate strategy

Oncology cytotoxics portfolio assessment

Eli Lilly

Corporate strategy

Oncology cytotoxics portfolio assessment

Portfolio assessment of other leading companies

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Journal papers

Websites

Other

Datamonitor reports

Appendix A – Market Assumptions

Forecasting assumptions

New product launches

Patent expiries

Rest of class definition

Data definitions, limitations and assumptions

Standard units

Country group definitions

Rest of the World

The ‘all other EU countries’ group

The ‘Other non-EU countries’ group

Forecast methodology

Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends

Exchange rates

Report methodology

Appendix B

About Datamonitor

About Datamonitor Healthcare

About the Oncology analysis team

Disclaimer

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