Kenya Telecommunications Report Q3 2010 of Business Monitor International now available at ReportsandReports

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BMI’s Q310 update of the Kenya Telecommunications report has seen little change to our forecasts for the next five years to 2014, as the end of 2009 results, those that are published anyway, largely confirm our expectations for the start of the year, and our forecasts for Kenya growth in general have not changed. One thing that has changed is the broadband forecast. Mobile services, in the form of Safaricom’s 3G mobile dongles, have become a massive part of the broadband landscape, overtaking fixed broadband connections. BMI has made the decision, across all of our reports, to include the 3G forecasts into the broadband forecast. Of course they are also kept separate as a mobile service that is important to mobile operators, but as they also compete directly with other broadband providers, we feel it is important to include these expected connections here as well.

Kenya is doing unusually well as a 3G market, with an estimated 2.05mn user at the end of 2009. This should pull up even further as the other operators enter the market. There is some difficulty and controversy about this. Zain, Orange and YU are campaigning for the 3G licence fee to be lowered below the US$25mn that Safaricom originally paid. Safaricom of course argues that, if they do not pay as much, then it should get some money back. It could be said that the leading operator was laying a premium for first mover advantage, something it has certainly enjoyed. Zain said it is already rolling out its 3G infrastructure, confident that it will have its licence soon, though BMI is not convinced that it will not be hit with the full US$26mn bill.

Zain has in general not been doing well. It continues to lose market share and has very recently announced a new strategy, to focus more on the mass market, where it has previously concentrated more on high-end users.

Speaking of high-end user, the broadband suppliers of Kenya are continuing to expand their services. With the entrance of the Kenya Power and Lighting Company into the wholesale side of the broadband and data business, offering backhaul capacity along some key routes to other operators, the overall highspeed data capacity within Kenya is moving in the right direction. Still, services remain expensive, although all the new developments, better national connections and the advent of international highcapacity fibre cables are contributing small pieces to the puzzle that will eventually see internet access become a much more common experience in Kenya.

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Kenya Mobile SWOT
Kenya Fixed-Line and Broadband SWOT
Kenya Political SWOT
Kenya Economic SWOT
Kenya Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
Sub-Saharan Africa
Kenya

Table: Regional Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile

Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line

Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet

Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile

Table: Kenya Mobile Market Q409

Table: Kenya Mobile Market Net Additions Q409
Network Strategies
Subscriber Mix And ARPU
Network Developments
3G
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Country Outlook

Table: VAS Developments
Mobile Operator Data

Table: Total Market

Table: Safaricom

Table: Zain (formerly Celtel)
Fixed Line

Table: Kenya’s Fixed Network Connections

Table: Kenya’s Fixed Network Traffic (minutes)
Internet

Table: Kenya’s Internet Subscribers

Table: Wireline Developments
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Kenya: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Competition
Licensing
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players

Table: Key Players – Kenya Telecoms Sector

Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2002-2008 (US$mn)
Company Monitor
Huawei: Wireless And Fibre Deployments Define Regional Growth While Huawei Expands Research And Training Commitments

Table: Huawei Financial Highlights

Table: Huawei – Recent Contract Wins and Other Developments in Sub-Saharan Africa

Table: Huawei – Recent Contract Wins And Other Developments In North Africa And The Middle East
Profiles
Safaricom
Telkom Kenya
Appendix:
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration
Mobile

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration
Internet

Table: Regional Internet Use Penetration
Country Snapshot: Kenya Demographic Data
Section 1: Population

able: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030

Section 2: Education And Healthcare

Table: Education, 2002-2005

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)

Glossary Of Terms

Table: Glossary Of Terms

BMI Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts

Telecoms Business Environment Ratings

Table: Weighting Of Indicators

Table: Ratings Indicators

Sources

Browse complete Kenya Telecommunications Report Q3 2010 Report

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